21/10/2022 Evening Reports

Fitch "Rising Interest Rates and Strong Dollar Hit the World Economy"
  • Retail Sales in the UK, which we follow today, decreased more than expected and came in at -1.4% monthly and -6.9% year on year. Data was expected to decrease by -0.5% monthly and -5.0% annually. Core Retail Sales decreased by 1.5% and 6.2%, respectively.
  • Retail Sales in Canada for August increased by 0.7%, exceeding the expectation of 0.2%. Core Retail Sales also rose 0.7%, better than expected.
  • The Consumer Confidence Index for October, announced by TURKSTAT today, rose from 72.4 to 76.2. Among other important indices, the General Economic Situation Expectation Index rose from 74 to 77.9, and the Financial Situation Index of the Household rose from 53 to 57.5.
  • In the assessment made by the International Credit Rating Agency, Fitch, it was stated that rising interest rates and the strong US dollar hit the world economy, government bond yields rose to levels not seen in years, and inflation rates remained well above the targets of central banks.
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    Support Level: 18.46-18.32-18.20 Resistance Level: 18.60-18.68-18.73

    USD/TRY

    USD/TRY – Strengthening Dollar Index Moves Pair To 18.60 Resistance Zone…

    On the last trading day of the week, the USDTRY parity rose to the 18.60 resistance zone with the support of the US Dollar in the global market from the rise in the US bond yields. If this resistance zone is exceeded, 18.68 and 18.73 band, which is the historical peak, can be followed as the next resistance zones. On the other hand, if the pair turns down from the 18.60 resistance zone, the 100-unit exponential moving average and 18.46 band, which we follow on the 4-hour chart, will be our first support zones.

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    Support Level: 0.9754-0.9631-0.9535 Resistance Level: 0.9850-0.9914-0.9988

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD – Rising US Bond Rates Revitalized Demand for Dollar…

    The rise in US bond yields on the last trading day of the week revived the demand for the US dollar in the global market. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker warned on Thursday that the Fed is actively trying to slow the economy to fight inflation. His comments fueled the recent rise in US Treasury bond yields, pushing the benchmark 10-year US government bond rate to its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Apart from that, rising recession fears are offering additional support to the Dollar. The EURUSD parity, which fell to the lowest region of the week with 0.9704 in the European session, recovered above the 0.9754 support band with the buying towards the opening of the US session. In case of possible decreases below the 0.9754 band in the parity, the 0.9631 band, which is the lowest level seen in October, will be followed as the next support zone. Above, 0.9850 and 50-day exponential moving average can be viewed as initial resistance zones.

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    Support Level: 1.1057-1.0923-1.0615 Resistance Level: 1.1240-1.1455-1.1600

    GBP/USD

    GBP/USD – Strengthening US Treasury Yields, Increasing Political Uncertainty Pushes The Pair To A Week’s Low…

    GBPUSD parity declined to the level of 1.1059 on the last trading day of the week, as the US dollar accelerated its upward trend with Treasury yields. The deepening of political uncertainty in the UK with the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Turss yesterday and the sharp decline in UK retail sales also created extra selling pressure on the parity. From a technical point of view, if the pair turns below the 1.1057 band, which it is approaching today, 1.0923 and 1.0615 levels can be followed as the next support zones. Above, 1.1240 and 1.1455, which coincides with the 55-day exponential moving average, stand out as the first resistance zones.

    Support Level: 1624-1614-1600 Resistance Level: 1645-1660-1684

    XAU/USD

    XAU/USD – Response Purchases Received From Near the Lowest Region in Two Years…

    On the last trading day of the week, Ounce Gold, which regressed to 1614, the lowest region of the last two years, with 1617 in the European session, erased its intraday losses with the purchases made with the opening of the US session. From a technical point of view, the 25-unit exponential moving average that we follow on the 4-hour chart and the Precious metal, which is heading towards the upper band of the blue descending channel, break above this region, and 1645 and 1660 levels come to the fore as the next resistance zones. Below, 1624 and 1614 levels will be our first support zones.

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