25/11/2022 Evening Reports
Due to the US Thanksgiving day, the market in the whole world passed in the form of “holiday mode” in general. It’s been a stagnant week on the news feed and data side. However, let’s take a brief look at the pricing.
- Oil side continued the decline it experienced last week, albeit slightly, this week;
- The EURUSD pair moved around the 1.0340 region on a low margin of around 100 pips.
- Although ounce gold saw sales during the week, it is preparing to close the week almost in the region where it was opened, just above the 1747 support.
- On the domestic side, the USDTRY parity increased its price movements to the level of 18.63 step by step.
- In the minutes of the FED November meeting published during the week, it was prominent that they discussed that the rate of increase in interest rates would slow down in the upcoming meetings. However, it was also confirmed that there was not much sign of weakening in inflation yet. While the rate of increase in interest rates decreased, the opinion that an evaluation should be made about the course of the inflation situation prevailed.
- In Germany, economic growth data for the third quarter were announced in the morning. The data are as follows.
Germany – Economic Growth (YoY – Q3): 1.2% (Exp.: 1.1%; Previous: 1.7%)
Germany – Economic Growth (QQ3): 0.4% (Exp.: 0.3%; Previous: 0.1%)
Although the German economy continues to slow down on an annual basis, it seems to have taken a breather in the third quarter. However, the fourth quarter is expected to be tough amid the energy crisis and concerns about a decrease in consumption.
- Germany GFK Consumer Confidence Index was announced as -40.2. The previous data was at -41.9. Consumer sentiment seems to have barely reacted mildly. The energy measures of the German government were largely effective in this. This situation may not be permanent.
- The deepest inverse structure of the last 15 years is seen in the German bond yield curve.
- The situation in the USA is even higher. The difference between the US 10-year and 2-year bond yields declined to -76 basis points. This shows that recession concerns still continue in both Germany and the USA.
BRENT – Rising with Support from 84.10 Level…
Brent Petrol, which fell to the support of 84.10 with the news that the European Union will impose a price ceiling on Russian oil, is rising again with the effect of the support received from this level. In the continuation of the rise, 87.90 and 89.30 can be viewed as resistance. In pullbacks, 85.54 and 84.10 can create support.
USD/CHF – Rises Up To 0.9470 Resistance…
After the shrinkage of the Manufacturing and Services sectors in the USA, the decreases that started in the USDCHF parity continued until the 0.9395 support. With the rework of this support, it rose to 0.9470 resistance. In the continuation of the rise and prices above the 0.9470 level, 0.9522 and 0.9550 can be viewed as resistance. In pullbacks, 0.9432 and 0.9395 can create support.
USD/TRY – Withdrawn by Resistance Encountered at 1053.20 Level…
The rises, which started with the support received from 1031.60 in Gr Gold TL, continued until the resistance of 1053.20. As this level could not be passed, there were retreats. In the continuation of the pullback, 1038.58 and 1031.60 can be viewed as support. In upward transactions and pricing above 1053.20, 1058 and 1068 may form resistance.
EUR/USD – Withdrawn Up To The Rising Price Trend…
The upward rally that started in the EURUSD parity continued until the 1.0448 level, after the shrinkage of PMI data in the USA and the FED’s statement in the FOMC minutes that it would be appropriate to slow down the rate of increase in interest rates. With the sales coming from this level, there were pullbacks up to the rising price trend that we watched in the 4-hour period. In case of holding on this trend, 1.0410 and 1.0460 can be followed as resistance. When the rising price trend is broken and prices are below, the transactions in favor of the Dollar may gain momentum.
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