28/10/2022 Evening Reports

US Core PCE Falls Under Expectation...
  • The US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Friday that the Personal Consumption Spending Price Index remained unchanged at 6.2% year-on-year in September. Crucial to the Fed, the Core PCE Price Index rose to 5.1% year-on-year from 4.9% in August, compared to analysts’ forecast of 5.2%.

 

  • On a monthly basis, it increased by 0.5% in September. Further details of the publication revealed that Personal Spending rose 0.6% and Personal Income rose 0.4% in September. With the initial reaction, the US Dollar Index retreated to the 110.56 region from near the intraday peak, but then increased towards the 111.00 limit in the yen.

 

  • When we look at the other data announced on the US front, pending house sales decreased by 10.2% on a monthly basis in September. This reading came after the 1.9% drop in August and came in much worse than the market’s expectation of a 5% contraction. On a year-over-year basis, Pending Home Sales fell 31% compared to analysts’ forecast of a decline of 10.5%.

 

  • Francois Villeroy de Galhau, President of the Bank of France and member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, said on Friday that there is no obligation to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the December meeting, and that the next rate hike will most likely not be like a “jumbo” hike like yesterday.

 

  • Gediminas Simkus, a member of the European Central Bank and the Chairman of the Central Bank of Lithuania, said that the probability of a recession in the Eurozone is increasing, but that it is necessary to continue to increase interest rates in an environment where inflation continues to be high. Meanwhile, data from Germany showed that the economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding the market forecast of 0.8%, but statements from ECB authorities did not allow the euro to benefit from this data.

 

  • In his speech at the press conference held after the monetary policy decision on Friday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda stated that they “will not hesitate to further loosen monetary policy if necessary”. Kuroda, who did not comment on foreign exchange intervention as it is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, said that it is very important for currencies to move steadily to reflect fundamentals and that it is undesirable for the Japanese economy as rapid yen movements make it difficult for companies to plan their business. The Bank of Japan, at its meeting today, left the interest rate unchanged at -0.10% as expected.
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    Support Level: 0.99 – 0.9815 – 0.9750 Resistance Level: 1.00 – 1.0185 – 1.0275

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD – Below 1.00 again…

    After rising until 1.01, it has been retreating since yesterday. After the ECB meeting to be held yesterday, the parity, which accelerated its decline, fell below 1.00 again. In general, we can watch 0.99 as an important support line in the short term. If it comes back below this zone again, the declines can be triggered again gradually.

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    Support Level: 1645 – 1622 – 1603 Resistance Level: 1660 – 1680 – 1697

    XAU/USD

    XAUUSD Preasuse Continues, Pay Attention to 1622!

    On the last trading day of the week, on the last trading day of the week, with the US 10-year bond yield reacting slightly upwards, the pressure it is under continues. With this pressure, it declined until the support of 1645. Further down, we will follow the 1622 level, which is the lowest level of the year. In possible reactions, step by step, we will watch the 1660 level as the main resistance, while 1660 is the intermediate resistance. As long as the 1680 resistance is not broken, we do not expect the reactions to be permanent.

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    Support Level: 18.45/18.25 – 17.77 – 17.35 Resistance Level: 18.70 – 19.10 - 19.50

    USD/TRY

    USD/TRY – We Followed the Trend with the 8-Week Average…

    On the dollar side, we continue to monitor the current trend with the weekly chart. In this chart, we follow the 8-week average as the main support line. Unless there is a weekly candle close below this average, it may be technically premature to expect a move in favor of TRY.

    Support Level: 1.1485 – 1.1365 – 1.1185 Resistance Level: 1.1610 – 1.1760 – 1.1880

    GBP/USD

    GBP/USD – 1.1760 Can Be Taken As Main Resistance…

    It’s again pushing the 1.1610 region it tested this week. Along with this, we will watch the region where the downtrend line from 1.2660 is located a little higher, as the main resistance line. Therefore, for now, the 1.1760 level is at the moment of resistance. Although the first support is 1.1485 in possible intraday decreases, movements in favor of the dollar may appear below this support.

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